Spring Statement 2026

Spring Statement 2026…

The Spring Forecast 2026 centres on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook, and the Chancellor’s speech. Unlike a full fiscal event, this publication does not introduce a wide-ranging package of new tax measures. Instead, it updates the official projections for economic growth, inflation, employment, borrowing, debt and tax receipts over the five-year forecast period. The Chancellor noted that ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent conflict involving Iran, contribute to global uncertainty and reinforce the value of a stable fiscal framework in navigating external shocks. Closer to home, the Chancellor stressed, “Inflation is down, borrowing is down, living standards are up, and the economy is growing.” Although policy announcements are limited, the forecast itself is materially important. The projected path for borrowing and debt determines the government’s fiscal position heading into the remainder of the Parliament.

The forecast also sets expectations for the tax burden, spending pressures and financial conditions, all of which affect households and businesses directly. This document explains the key components of the March 2026 forecast